compass

 

 

Marin County Real Estate 

Market Report

 

 

Some Shifts in Marin and Bay Area Markets

 

October 2018

 

 

Median Home Price Appreciation
Quarterly & Long-Term Trends

 

Year over year, the Q3 2018 Marin median house sales price was up 6% from Q3 2017. Note that median sales prices typically fall from Q2 to Q3, mostly due to seasonality issues.

 

 

 

 

New Listings, Price Reductions, Total Inventory

 

Per the next 3 charts: Comparing September 2018 with September 2017, the number of new listings in Marin was up 6%, price reductions on active listings were up 21%, and the number of active listings on the market on a given day within the month was up 44%. 

 

Other Bay Area counties generally saw more dramatic changes in inventory than Marin did, which is illustrated in the table following the charts. Not too much should be made of any one month's data until substantiated over the longer term, but it may be that after a torrid, low-inventory market, autumn 2017 through spring 2018, the dynamics are starting to shift. We will know more in 4 to 6 weeks.

 

 

 

 

What will tell us most about where the market is heading is how buyers respond to these new listings and price reductions, and that information won't be available until autumn's listings have time to accept offers, and accepted offers have time to close escrow - in quantity - to give us their data. 

 

 

Bay Area Year-over-Year Statistics

by County

 

Jumps in listings and price reductions have been common around the Bay Area, and in some counties, the changes are much more pronounced than in Marin: Sonoma saw a 122% increase in price reductions amid an active inventory of listings 90% higher than in September of last year. Santa Clara County saw staggering increases, but much of that is due to the fact that inventory was incredibly, abnormally low last year, when Santa Clara was perhaps the hottest real estate market in the country. 

 

 

 

Market Dynamics Statistics

 

Many of the standard statistics by which market heat is typically measured remain relatively unchanged in Marin year over year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Marin Luxury Home Market

 

The number of new, higher-priced home listings coming on market jumped significantly in September. In another month, the data will become available on buyer response to the increased inventory.

 

The luxury home market is fiercely seasonal with considerable ebbs and flows in activity over the year.

 

 

September is not a big month for closed sales of luxury homes as closings in September mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in August - typically a slow month. It's not unusual to see a spike in October sales following the September surge in new listings.

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Interest Rates

 

Interest rates play a big role in the ongoing cost of housing. They have been climbing since the beginning of the year, and in the week ending October 11, they spiked up dramatically. Rates remain low on a historical basis, but are sharply higher than the lows reached in recent years. 

 

 


Rita Gatlin
Rita Gatlin
Realtor